202 # Round numbers strategy

Submit by Joy22

 

I found this strategy on google and i thought was interesting enough to post it:

"This is another very simple, but extremely efficient strategy. The round numbers (example EUR/USD 1.2800, USD/JPY 99.00) are natural levels of support and resistance. A lot of orders are placed around these levels. During the last few years the importance of the round numbers increased because they are used for options barriers levels and are protected. That is why when the market approaches such levels the price movement is countered by these order flows and small retracement usually happens. You should study carefully the price action around the round numbers and improve the strategy.

Rules for long position

1. The prices approach round number support.

2. Long position is initiated when:
- the price hits the round number, or
- the price breaks a few pips below the round number.

- the price breaks a few pips below the round number.

3. After the position is open an initial stop loss order is placed 2-3 pips below the low reached during the test of the round number or at fixed distance from the entry point.

4. A limit order is placed according to our Money management rules.

Rules for short position

  1. The prices approach round number resistance.

  2. Short position is initiated when:
    - the price hits the round number, or
    - the price breaks a few pips above the round number.

  3. After the position is open an initial stop loss order is placed 2-3 pips above the high reached during the test of the round number or at fixed distance from the entry point.

  4. A limit order is placed according to our Money management rules."

It doesn't say where the TP should be but i guess at the next round number.

Taking Advantage of the Hunt
The "stop hunting with the big specs" is an exceedingly simple setup, requiring nothing more than a price chart and one indicator. Here is the setup in a nutshell: On a one-hour chart, mark lines 15 points of either side of the round number. For example, if the EUR/USD is approaching the 1.2500 figure, the trader would mark off 1.2485 and 1.2515 on the chart. This 30-point area is known as the "trade zone", much like the 20-yard line on the football field is known as the "redzone". Both names communicate the same idea - namely that the participants have a high probability of scoring once they enter that area.

The idea behind this setup is straightforward. Once prices approach the round-number level, speculators will try to target the stops clustered in that region. Because FX is a decentralized market, no one knows the exact amount of stops at any particular "00" level, but traders hope that the size is large enough to trigger further liquidation of positions - a cascade of stop orders that will push price farther in that direction than it would move under normal conditions. Therefore, in the case of long setup, if the price in the EUR/USD was climbing toward the 1.2500 level, the trader would go long the pair with two units as soon as it crossed the 1.2485 threshold. The stop on the trade would be 15 points back of the entry because this is a strict momentum trade. If prices do not immediately follow through, chances are the setup failed. The profit target on the first unit would be the amount of initial risk or approximately 1.2500, at which point the trader would move the stop on the second unit to breakeven to lock in profit. The target on the second unit would be two times initial risk or 1.2515, allowing the trader to exit on a momentum burst. Aside from watching these key chart levels, there is only one other rule that a trader must follow in order to optimize the probability of success. Because this setup is basically a derivative of momentum trading, it should be traded only in the direction of the larger trend. There are numerous ways to ascertain direction using technical analysis, but the 200-period (SMA) on the hourly charts may be particularly effective in this case. By using a longer term average on the short-term charts, you can stay on the right side of the price action without being subject to near-term whipsaw moves.

Round Numbers Strategy

Round Numbers Strategy
Forex Trading System
Round Numbers Strategy 1.rar
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Figure 1


Note that on June 8, 2006 the EUR/USD is trading well below its 200 SMA, indicating that the pair is in a strong downtrend (Figure 1). As prices approach the 1.2700 level from the downside, the trader would initiate a short the moment price crosses the 1.2715 level, putting a stop 15 points above the entry at 1.2730. In this particular example, the downside momentum is extremely strong as traders gun stops at the 1.2700 level within the hour. The first half of the trade is exited at 1.2700 for a 15-point profit and the second half is exited at 1.2685 generating 45 points of reward for only 30 points of risk.

 

 

The example illustrated in Figure 2 also takes place on June 8, 2006, but this time in the USD/JPY the "trade-zone" setup generates several opportunities for profit over a short period of time as key stop cluster areas are probed over and over. In this case, the pair trades well above its 200 period SMA and, therefore, the trader would only look to take long setups. At 3am EST, the pair trades through the 113.85 level, triggering a long entry. In the next hour, the longs are able to push the pair through the 114.00 stop cluster level and the trader would sell one unit for a 15-point profit, immediately moving the stopto breakeven at 113.85. The longs can't sustain the buying momentum and the pair trades back below 113.85, taking the trader out of the market. Only two hours later, however, prices once again rally through 113.85 and the trader gets long once more. This time, both profit targets are hit as buying momentum overwhelms the shorts and they are forced to cover their positions, creating a cascade of stops that verticalize prices by 100 points in only two hours.

 

 

Conclusion
The "stop hunt with the big specs" is one of the simplest and most efficient FX setups available to short-term traders. It requires nothing more than focus and a basic understanding of currency market dynamics. Instead of being victims of stop hunting expeditions, retail traders can finally turn the tables and join the move with the big players, banking short-term profits in the process.

 

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